In early February 2024, the energy think tank Ember released its European Electricity Review 2024, drawing gasps across the industry. Coal-fired electricity generation fell by 26 percent in 2023—the biggest drop ever recorded—falling to its lowest share in modern times, just 12 percent of EU power.
Gas followed suit, down 15 percent, supplying only about 17 percent. In total, fossil fuels in the EU’s power system shrank by 19 percent, triggering a record decline in power-sector carbon emissions.
The decline was not the result of mere happenstance. Several forces aligned:
- Falling Demand: Electricity consumption across the EU slipped by 3.4 percent in 2023 compared to 2022; over two years, it’s down 6.4 percent. Industrial sectors—steel, chemicals, paper—cut back energy use amid rising gas costs, and milder weather trimmed heating needs.
- Renewables Surged: Wind climbed 13 percent, generating 18 percent of the EU’s electricity. Solar hit 9 percent. Combined with hydropower and others, renewables captured a record 44 percent share of the grid.
- Structural Shifts And Behavior Change: The historic cutback in gas imports following Russia’s war on Ukraine pushed industries and consumers to reduce gas use. In one study, less industrial output, milder heating needs, and electrification together accounted for a large share of the gas decline.
According to Ember’s analysis, the European Union’s energy landscape is undergoing a major transformation, with fossil fuels rapidly losing prominence as wind and solar power emerge as the central pillars of a new, cleaner energy system.
A Mosaic Of Momentum Across The EU
This transformation was not uniform—some nations led the rhythm, others lagged. Germany, whose coal dependency had persisted for decades, saw a steep drop: coal’s share in its electricity mix declined sharply.
In 2023, Germany achieved a 70-year low in greenhouse emissions, partly thanks to reduced coal burn. Elsewhere, nations such as Portugal and Austria recorded more than 30 percent decreases in fossil fuel generation year-on-year.
Some countries even registered stretches without coal use: the Netherlands, for example, went 17 consecutive days without using coal in June 2023.
Even as wind and solar capacity soared, these sources did more than add volume—they displaced fossil energy. A Reuters analysis showed that compared to 2019, wind and solar output grew 46 percent by 2023, displacing a full fifth of the EU’s fossil fuel generation.
By mid-2024, renewable and nuclear sources combined produced 74 percent of EU electricity, the highest-ever low-carbon profile. Coal trailed at 9 percent, gas 13 percent.
In 2024, another milestone arrived: solar overtook coal for the first time. According to Ember, solar accounted for 11 percent of EU electricity, while coal dipped below 10 percent. Gas continued its decline, dropping to 15.7 percent. This represented not a blip but the latest chord in a longer movement: five consecutive years of downward gas dependence.
Voices From This Turning Point
In a Brussels office, I met with Pieter de Pous of the climate think tank E3G. He leaned forward, his eyes bright with pragmatic hope.
“These 2023 power market data show this wasn’t just talk,” he said. “The EU is making very significant progress at home in moving to a fossil-free power system, with cheap renewables eliminating demand for coal and gas permanently.”
Ember’s Global Insights Director, Dave Jones, highlighted that as Europe accelerates electrification through technologies such as heat pumps, electric vehicles, and electrolysers, electricity demand will continue to rise. To meet climate goals, renewable energy generation must expand at the same pace to sustain long-term emissions reductions and maintain environmental stability.
To illustrate, I visited a community in southern Spain where a local cooperative powered hundreds of homes using rooftop solar and battery storage. A retired schoolteacher named María showed me a graph on her tablet: the quarterly drop in gas dependence mirrored the sharp rise in solar output.
“I didn’t think our grid could change so fast,” she said, smiling. “But every time I switch on the light without paying for gas—it feels like a little revolution.”
But The Road Ahead Curves
Though the moment feels historic, challenges loom.
Seasonal And Dispatchable Balance: In 2025, drought has weakened hydroelectric output, cutting Germany, Italy, and Spain’s dispatchable power by about 13 percent compared to last year. As solar wanes in winter, grid operators may again turn to gas and coal to meet demand. Indeed, for late 2024, forecasts anticipated fossil-fuel resurgence.
Policy And Grid Friction: Developers often face permitting delays for renewables, especially wind farms and grid reinforcements. Some argue that regulatory inertia could stall momentum.
Equity Of Transition: As coal plants close, regions dependent on fossil industries—mining towns in Poland, parts of eastern Germany—face job loss and economic upheaval. Just transition mechanisms must accompany decarbonisation.
Peak Demand Surges: Cold snaps, heatwaves, or economic rebounds may require rapid power ramp-up, demanding flexible backup resources. Without them, supply shortfalls could threaten reliability.
Yet these challenges are not fatal—they are invitations to innovation, infrastructure planning, and political courage.
Turning Momentum Into Legacy
The collapse in coal and gas generation in 2023 did more than cut emissions—it cracked open new possibilities.
- Technology Synergies: Battery storage, green hydrogen, smart grids, demand response systems, and long-duration energy storage are emerging as essential enablers of a fully renewable system.
- Local Empowerment: Across Europe, citizens are forming energy cooperatives, putting solar on rooftops, and pooling resources to invest in community renewables.
- Policy Coherence: Plans like REPowerEU, which aim to end dependency on Russian fossil fuels by 2030, bolster long-term direction.
- Global Mirror: The EU’s journey is already mirrored in other regions—Latin America, parts of Asia, and Africa—where renewable energy costs are falling, offering hope for a less carbon-intensive future worldwide.
I returned to Leipzig as twilight deepened. The street lamps glowed—powered by wind farms in Brandenburg, solar arrays in Bavaria, and hydropower from Alpine rivers. No smoke. No coal ash. Just clean electricity, humming quietly through the grids.
What struck me most was how quickly the old dominance of coal and gas unraveled: it was not a decades-long glide but a sharp inflection. And in that inflection resides possibility. For Europe, the moment is not just about ending coal—but about birthing a system that is resilient, fair, and rooted in clean energy.
There will be storms ahead. Grid constraints. Political pushback. The inevitable winters when renewable output dips. But the lie has been broken: fossil fuels no longer hold the center. The dance of wind and sun is taking over the stage.
If one day your child flicks a switch in Belgium, Greece, or Spain and feels nothing but light—no rumble, no fossil breath—may they see it not as an accident, but as a choice made years ago: when people collectively asked, what kind of future do we deserve?
